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Sunday, 05 February 2012 12:00 |
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Here is your weekly trading calendar of scheduled economic data releases and other potential market moving events for the trading week of February 6 - 10, 2012.
Visit BookingAlpha for details on how to leverage this information into actionable trades.
Navigate wisely and stay profitable, my friends.
MONDAY:
N/A
TUESDAY:
3:00 Consumer Credit, December: $8.5B expected, $20.4B prior
WEDNESDAY:
7:00 MBA Mortgage Index, 02/04: -2.9% prior
10:30 Crude Inventories, 02/04: 4.175M prior
THURSDAY:
8:30 Initial Claims, 02/04: 370K expected, 367K prior
8:30 Continuing Claims, 01/28: 3475K expected, 3437K prior
10:00 Wholesale Inventories, December: 0.4% expected, 0.1% prior
FRIDAY:
8:30 Trade Balance, December: -$48.2B expected, -$47.8B prior
9:55 Michigan Sentiment, February Preliminary: 74.0 expected, 75.0 prior
2:00 Treasury Budget, January: -$40.0B expected, -$49.8B prior
If you like what I'm doing please post it out there on Investimonials and Stock Gumshoe. I do no advertising, spam mailing, or anything else like that. My sole source of marketing is subscriber referrals, opinions, reviews, and feedback. Thanks in advance!
Check out my latest interviews at TraderInterviews.com & Benzinga:
Subscribe today and don't miss out on your next profit opportunity!
Enter promo code: BookingAlpha during account opening process for your FREE $50 bucks!
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Sunday, 05 February 2012 11:22 |
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Broader Market Weekly Performance:
Dow +1.60%
S&P +2.18%
Nasdaq +4.13%
Russell +4.16%
MARKET UPDATE:
There is a lot going on in the market and with our Trading Service positions this week. As a result, I will use bullet format to get all these thoughts out in a somewhat digestible format. Please excuse me if I jump around a bit :)
--The market has moved from overbought to insanely overbought with Friday's gap higher outside the upper Bollinger Bands.
--All major indexes are >3 standard deviations above their 20 Day Moving Averages. This is an extreme reading.
--All of the major index charts are full of gaps in the recent rally that WILL be filled. All gaps get filled, it's just a question of when.
--The market is full of euphoria and has become extremely complacent. Markets don't rally 6 to 9% PER MONTH even when the market/economy/globe is hitting on all cylinders. For perspective, a good YEAR of performance for markets is 8-10%.
--Euro-land, and specifically Greece, is not fixed and will default in the not too distant future.
--Markets take stairs up and elevator down. AKA - markets rise much slower than they fall.
--Earnings estimates were lowered going into the current reporting season. The earnings beats are on drastically lower expectations and outlooks are below already reduced levels for the rest of the year.
--This current rally is on the lowest volume in over 10 years.
I could go on with lots more snippets but the bottom line is that the markets are rallying hard, period. Even if you feel like the market is going to continue higher unabated, you would be foolish to think there will be no pullbacks along the way. Look at every uptrend and you will see healthy pullbacks throughout out their ascent. Then look at the current rally beginning in late Dec 2011. There is a glaring lack of pullbacks.
The same goes for large scale pullbacks, just like rallies don't go straight up, pullbacks don't go straight down either.
That is why I am comfortable watching this thing go parabolic. Each additional rally day without a healthy pullback and digestion of the move undermines the health of the gains. The action feel like a blow-off top where the market makes one final unsustainable extreme push at the end of a large rally. It typically begins with a gap up, lasts a few days, and then comes back down to earth.
i think this blow off top could take us to S&P 1350-1360. However, with all the indices trading more than 3 standard deviations above their 20 Day Moving Averages and trading above their upper Bollinger Bands on daily & weekly time-frames, this momentum cannot last for long. A pullback to at least the 1315 level is imminent in the coming week or 2 .
Navigate wisely and stay profitable, my friends. Happy trading!
BOOKINGALPHA UPDATE:
Monthly Trading Service Commentary:
As communicated Friday and again below, this is a good area to add to some of the current positions by purchasing additional spreads at even better prices (larger credits received) than our original entries.
Another alternative would be purchasing additional long puts in the SPY Bear Put Debit Spread to create a ratio spread. This will result in having more long puts than short calls which will provide enhanced profits on any pullback
To remind you all that I have my own money on the line as well as that of my fund, and to provide my commitment to my strategy and comments, I executed both of the suggestions listed above on Friday. Furthermore, with the portfolio 60% invested after adding the SPX spread this week, I am looking to deploy the last trade for Feb early in the coming week on RUT or IWM.
RUT is the most overbought of the indexes and closed above its daily & weekly Bollinger Band on Friday. This sets up a couple great trading opportunities so be on the lookout for a trade this week.
This is not the time for knee jerk reactions. Don't get spooked and bail on losing positions as that simply locks in losses and eliminates the ability of those positions to recover. Option volatility's are getting whipped around and the value of our holdings are whipsawing on a hourly/daily basis. Don't let this effect your emotions and make rash decisions.
Timing- wise, our positions will benefit very quickly on any pullback. With 2 weeks left in our current options trades premiums are low. The Greeks Delta and Gamma are high due the proximity of the underlyings to our spreads. This will cause our spreads values to mirror the markets volatility more closely and recoup losses quickly on any pullback.
As stinky as it looks right now, this is actually a good place to be, under the circumstances, as we will benefit from pullbacks immediately and at a fast pace which will help reduce the current losses reflected.
Adjustments to all the positions are still available with no cost to profitability and that is a very important thing.
The SPY Bear Put Debit Spread is in good shape as in spite of Friday's rally, the SPY remains below the break-even level of the spread. Any consolidation or pullback will be reflected immediately in the position. Ample adjustment opportunities exist as well.
The SPX Bear Call Credit Spread is in good shape as well so there is nothing to do or worry about with the position right now.
The QQQ Bear Call Spread is the ugliest of the positions right now. Roll adjustments are still available at no cost and with the Q's closing above their daily and weekly Bollinger Band, not to mention the RSI, Williams %R and air pockets down to the short term moving averages, the crazy Q's need to take some off the top which will benefit this position greatly.
The Monthly Advisory continues to outperform and deliver consistent Alpha:
+4.60% YTD BookingAlpha Monthly Advisory
vs.
+6.83% YTD S&P 500
See Trading Record
Weekly Trading Service Commentary:
This week I used the continued rally to execute a Bear Call Spread on SPX which expired Friday for full profit of +4.17% in 3 days.
Friday's gap up and continued run into the close sets the coming week up nicely for another trade so be on the look out for that on most likely Tuesday or Wednesday.
The existing IWM Bear Put Debit Spread is feeling some heat as the IWM has been on fire lately. The IWM is up +9.6% YTD and +4.9% last week alone. It closed above its daily and weekly Bollinger Band and is reflecting the RSI in almost 2 years. IWM is the second most overbought of the indexes. This is an unsustainable pace that cannot keep up.
The existing IWM position can be easily roll adjusted if needed but it is too early to do so just yet. Let this blow-off top run its course and don't let your emotions cause you to make rash decisions. This is not the time for knee jerk reactions. Don't get spooked and bail on losing positions as that simply locks in losses and eliminates the ability of those positions to recover. Option volatility's are getting whipped around and the value of our holdings are whipsawing on a hourly/daily basis. Don't let this effect your emotions and make rash decisions.
Timing- wise, our position will benefit very quickly on any pullback. With 2 weeks left in our current option trade premiums are low. The Greeks Delta and Gamma are high due the proximity of the underlying to our spread. This will cause our spread value to mirror the markets volatility more closely and recoup losses quickly on any pullback.
As stinky as it looks right now, this is actually a good place to be, under the circumstances, as we will benefit from pullbacks immediately and at a fast pace which will help reduce the current losses reflected.
In the meantime, we will continue to manage the IWM position prudently and take opportunistic advantage of trading opportunities when they become available.
The Weekly Advisory continues to outperform and deliver Alpha:
+6.55% YTD BookingAlpha Weekly Advisory
vs.
+6.83% YTD S&P 500
See Trading Record
What are your thoughts on the market? Place your comments below!
If you like what I'm doing please review BookingAlpha on Investimonials and Stock Gumshoe. I do no advertising, spam mailing, or anything else like that. My sole source of marketing is subscriber referrals, opinions, reviews, and feedback. Thanks in advance!
TradeMonster-Get $50.00 FREE for opening a new account. Enter promo code: BookingAlpha during account opening process for your FREE $50 bucks!
Check out my latest interviews at TraderInterviews.com & Benzinga:
Subscribe today and don't miss out on your next profit opportunity!
Enter promo code: BookingAlpha during account opening process for your FREE $50 bucks!
It's a great time to be a credit spread seller with this volatile environment. But, be mindful of the recent gains and don't chase or get too aggressive! Both BookingAlpha Trading Advisory Services have been reaping nice rewards from this volatility the past few months. September and October were very profitable and November positions are already being deployed to reap gains from current volatility. Stay tuned and we'll see!
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Wednesday, 01 February 2012 14:37 |
Markets opened strong this morning and continue to post gains. ADP jobs data was bad, ISM was bad, and yesterday's PMI was weak. But hey, China's GDP was OK so let's shoot for the moon again.
I have taken advantage of today's rally by releasing 2 Bear Call Credit Spreads on SPX, 1 spread in each of the Trading Services. Strong rallies at the top of a trading range are a great time and place to deploy Bear Call Credit Spreads.
I am still very weary to get under this market with puts. I have taken flack about how I am missing the boat (and profits) with my lack of creating Iron Condors by issuing put spreads. This is not a market to get underneath. Bull put spreads under a market that defies gravity works.....until it doesn't. I have traded through way to many of these scenarios where things are great and everyone is lulled into a false sense of security. Then, you wake up to a down 30 S&P point day and everyone is "surprised"....and wiped out because their puts exploded. I say no thank you to that and good luck to those who wish to chase those trades.
The continued rally is threatening a couple of my current positions. The QQQ Bear Call Credit Spread is bleeding but with the Q's up >5% in 3 weeks, >7.4% in the last 30 days, at it's upper Bollinger Band (again), Williams%R and RSI screaming overbought on daily and weekly charts, and a large air pocket below the current price and the short term moving averages, I am comfortable to hold the position and wait for the pullback. Plus, more importantly, I can still roll the spread out for zero cost if more time is required for the pullback to occur.
My SPY & IWM Bear Put Debit Spreads are getting close but strong resistance lies between the market and the short strikes. The same circumstances as described above in the QQQ trade apply to the SPY & IWM as well. Therefore, all told, I am comfortable with them as well at this juncture.
We will see how the market closes today but the economic data to be released the next few days will be very interesting. I think we are setting up for some disappointments on jobs and retail sales. We'll see soon enough.....
Navigate wisely and stay profitable, my friends. Happy trading!
+4.60% YTD BookingAlpha Monthly Advisory
+5.30% YTD BookingAlpha Weekly Advisory
vs.
+5.48% YTD S&P 500
As you all know, BookingAlpha does ZERO advertising and instead depends solely upon what my subscribers say in reviews and referrals for growth. If BookingAlpha has provided you a good experience please take the time to tell others via Investimonials, Stock Gumshoe, or any other review site or medium you see fit. Thanks in advance!
Subscribe today and don't miss out on your next profit opportunity!
Enter promo code: BookingAlpha during account opening process for your FREE $50 bucks!
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Sunday, 29 January 2012 10:09 |
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Broader Market Weekly Performance:
Dow -0.47%
S&P +0.07%
Nasdaq +1.02%
Russell +1.81%
MARKET UPDATE:
Week 4 of 2012 trading brought the markets to new relative highs but ended the week with a thud as resistance held firm. Helicopter Ben Bernanke reaffirmed his zero interest rate policy this week and along with earnings, it was enough to push the market even further.
Economic data this week signaled things are okay but not great. Jobless claims moved higher and GDP missed expectations. The Euro zone is still a disaster but the headlines have stopped and has enabled the market to continue to grind higher.
Earnings headlines have been positive for the most part but what the talking heads on TV *forget* to report is that the majority of reporting companies reduced their earnings outlooks prior to reporting. Therefore, the beats that are being reported or actually merely surpassing a reduced earnings target.
Positive earnings headlines have not been enough to push the market through resistance and with the run the markets have had, the action feels a little toppy. Keep in mind this is a short squeeze and it could have further to go but things are starting to feel more and more shaky by the day.
The Nasdaq leads the indexes up +6% this year alone. Yes, you read the right, +6% this year alone. Even if things were great domestically and Europe was not a financial powder keg, market can't rise at a 6% per month rate. To provide some perspective, "good" years of market performance are considered to be +10%. So even if this year was going to be "good" for markets, January alone would constitute 60% of the performance for the year.
The S&P is up +4.6% YTD and remains short trem overbought along with all the indexes. I anticipate a visit to S&P 1280-ish in the next 1-2 weeks and have positioned the BookingAlpha portfolios accordingly.
Navigate wisely and stay profitable, my friends. Happy trading!
BOOKINGALPHA UPDATE:
Monthly Trading Service Commentary:
This week brought the successful expiration of the SPX Bear Call Spread yielding profits of +15.6% in 21 days. Not a bad trade considering last week it required a roll adjustment up a couple strikes and out 1 week. The adjustment increased our credit received and reset our risk to higher strikes. Ultimately, it was a great adjustment yielding more profit while mitigating risk.
No new positions were added this week and the portfolio is 40% invested with 60% in cash. The 2 spreads open, a SPY Bear Put Spread (debit spread) and a Bear Call Spread (credit spread) utilize Feb options.
The SPY spread is in nice shape considering the market action. The QQQ spread continues to managed closely as the Q's are the most overbought and currently threaten our position.
Nice roll adjustments are available if the Q's continue their strength but it is too early to deploy them just yet. Taking into account the extreme rally and overbought situation, it is most prudent hold the position as is and wait for the roll adjustment opportunities to come to us and/or let the Q's lose some of their recently gained altitude. Time is always on our side with Bear Call Spreads in overbought markets.
The Monthly Advisory continues to outperform and deliver consistent drama-free Alpha:
+4.60% YTD BookingAlpha Monthly Advisory
vs.
+4.56% YTD S&P 500
See Trading Record
Weekly Trading Service Commentary:
There was no trade for this week's Weekly Options Expiration due to lack of prudent opportunities.
Las week's IWM Bear Put Spread using Feb Monthly options is still open and in good shape despite IWM's rally. The trade is designed to profit on a pullback, or at least a slower rally than experienced lately.
IWM is the second most overbought of the indexes (behind the Nasdaq / QQQ) advancing >4.5% this year already. This is an unsustainable pace that cannot keep up. Keeping in mind that markets can stay irrational longer than any one trader can stay solvent, I executed the deep in the money Bear Put Spread.
The IWM position provides a nice buffer in the event the rally continues short term. I used Feb options to provide extra time for the position to work out if the rally does indeed continue short term. However, any further rally will be short lived due to the extreme overbought circumstances of the market.
The Weekly Advisory continues to outperform and deliver Alpha:
+5.30% YTD BookingAlpha Weekly Advisory
vs.
+4.56% YTD S&P 500
See Trading Record
What are your thoughts on the market? Place your comments below!
If you like what I'm doing please review BookingAlpha on Investimonials and Stock Gumshoe. I do no advertising, spam mailing, or anything else like that. My sole source of marketing is subscriber referrals, opinions, reviews, and feedback. Thanks in advance!
TradeMonster-Get $50.00 FREE for opening a new account. Enter promo code: BookingAlpha during account opening process for your FREE $50 bucks!
Check out my latest interviews at TraderInterviews.com & Benzinga:
Subscribe today and don't miss out on your next profit opportunity!
Enter promo code: BookingAlpha during account opening process for your FREE $50 bucks!
It's a great time to be a credit spread seller with this volatile environment. But, be mindful of the recent gains and don't chase or get too aggressive! Both BookingAlpha Trading Advisory Services have been reaping nice rewards from this volatility the past few months. September and October were very profitable and November positions are already being deployed to reap gains from current volatility. Stay tuned and we'll see!
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Tuesday, 24 January 2012 19:51 |
Markets continue to grind in narrow ranges as tension builds in anticipation of resolution. The action has been pretty boring and much like paint drying as the volume-less trading meanders the markets.
I actually expected more upside than the markets have experienced this week thus far. Tomorrow, though, the rally may commence in response to the Jesus Stock's (AAPL) earnings release and usual Fed excitement. The action tomorrow will be interesting and important. Typically, markets reverse direction from morning trading after the Fed comments are released in the afternoon....so we'll see.
In a bigger picture approach, tomorrow may give some reading of if the market will make one final further push higher in a blow-off top type scenario to end the current rally. The upside is somewhat limited here in the short term as a further push higher will merely take things from overbought to more overbought.
Ultimately, I expect the market to move higher but the recent rally needs to be digested via sideways action and/or a pullback to test resistance turned support. As mentioned before, a retrace down to S&P 1280 or so would be very healthy to sustain a further rally.
If the rally does indeed continue higher tomorrow, or through the end of the week, current positions in both the Monthly & Weekly Trading Services should remain fairly comfortable; I deployed the positions with a potential continued rally in mind. All of my spreads remain nicely above the market and I feel comfortable holding them.
The only tight spot may be the QQQ Bear Call Spread in the Monthly Trading Service due to an AAPL induced tech rally. The Q's are at 11 year highs and an AAPL earnings rally may push them even higher. Tech earnings have been so-so, beyond AAPL, and guidance is being ratcheted down for the current quarter; remember, guidance has already been ratcheted down for the quarter being reported now.
The current excitement will die down as earnings releases slow and markets run out of reasons to continuing railing northward. A little heat for the Q spread tomorrow/this week should not be anything to freak out about as weeks remain in the Feb spreads and the Q's are pretty overheated.
So, let the rally run and if the Q's find more steroids to push even higher, I will simply roll adjust the spread. That is the beauty of Bear Call Spreads, you can almost always buy more time for your trading thesis to come fruition and typically get paid (via receiving additional credit) to do so, thereby enhancing your profit profile.
Navigate wisely and stay profitable, my friends. Happy trading!
+2.10% YTD BookingAlpha Monthly Advisory
+5.30% YTD BookingAlpha Weekly Advisory
vs.
+4.54% 2011 S&P 500
As you all know, BookingAlpha does ZERO advertising and instead depends solely upon what my subscribers say in reviews and referrals for growth. If BookingAlpha has provided you a good experience please take the time to tell others via Investimonials, Stock Gumshoe, or any other review site or medium you see fit. Thanks in advance!
Subscribe today and don't miss out on your next profit opportunity!
Enter promo code: BookingAlpha during account opening process for your FREE $50 bucks!
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Tuesday, 24 January 2012 10:35 |
I got a lot of inquiries about autotrade: How does autotrading work? How do you setup autotrade? How much does autotrading cost?.....These are just to name a few.
If I have missed any questions or aspects please let me know so I can update accordingly. Thanks!
BookingAlpha Autotrade Brokers:
Navigate wisely and stay profitable, my friends. Happy trading!
+2.10% YTD BookingAlpha Monthly Advisory
+5.30% YTD BookingAlpha Weekly Advisory
vs.
+4.54% 2011 S&P 500
As you all know, BookingAlpha does ZERO advertising and instead depends solely upon what my subscribers say in reviews and referrals for growth. If BookingAlpha has provided you a good experience please take the time to tell others via Investimonials, Stock Gumshoe, or any other review site or medium you see fit. Thanks in advance!
Subscribe today and don't miss out on your next profit opportunity!
Enter promo code: BookingAlpha during account opening process for your FREE $50 bucks!
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Monday, 23 January 2012 08:32 |
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Here is your weekly trading calendar of scheduled economic data releases and other potential market moving events for the trading week of January 23 - 27, 2012.
Visit BookingAlpha for details on how to leverage this information into actionable trades.
Navigate wisely and stay profitable, my friends.
MONDAY:
N/A
TUESDAY:
N/A
WEDNESDAY:
7:00 MBA Mortgage Index, 01/21: 23.1% prior
10:00 Pending Home Sales, December: -3.0% expected, 7.3% prior
10:00 FHFA Housing Price Index, November: -0.2% prior
10:30 Crude Inventories, 01/21: -3.438M prior
2:30 FOMC Rate Decision, January: 0.25% expected, 0.25% prior
THURSDAY:
8:30 Initial Claims, 01/21: 375K expected, 352K prior
8:30 Continuing Claims, 01/14: 3550K expected, 3432K prior
8:30 Durable Orders, December: 2.0% expected, 3.7% prior (revised from 3.8%)
8:30 Durable Orders -ex Autos, December: 0.7% expected, 0.3% prior
10:00 New Home Sales, December: 322K expected, 315K prior
10:00 Leading Indicators, December: 0.7% expected, 0.5% prior
FRIDAY:
8:30 Chain Deflator-Adv., Q4: 2.6% prior
8:30 GDP-Adv., Q4: 3.1% expected, 1.8% prior
8:30 Chain Deflator-Adv., Q4: 1.5% expected, 2.6% prior
9:55 Michigan Sentiment - Final, January: 74.2 expected, 74.0 prior
If you like what I'm doing please post it out there on Investimonials and Stock Gumshoe. I do no advertising, spam mailing, or anything else like that. My sole source of marketing is subscriber referrals, opinions, reviews, and feedback. Thanks in advance!
Check out my latest interviews at TraderInterviews.com & Benzinga:
Subscribe today and don't miss out on your next profit opportunity!
Enter promo code: BookingAlpha during account opening process for your FREE $50 bucks!
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Saturday, 21 January 2012 11:52 |
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Broader Market Weekly Performance:
Dow +2.39%
S&P +1.95%
Nasdaq +1.84%
Russell +2.02%
MARKET UPDATE:
Three weeks into 2012 and markets continue to rocket higher. Decent earnings and a lack of headlines out of Europe have provided the market what it needed to continue squeezing any and all shorts. Add January OpEx into the equation and things get even more squirrely; aka painful for the shorts.
As discussed during email correspondence with a subscriber this week, OpEx typically results in market movements that will cause the most pain for the most option market participants. This time around that meant railing the market even higher to squeeze the shorts even further.
As a result, the VIX closed the week at a 5 month low. The close was below the lower Bollinger Band and far below the short term moving averages (10, 13, and 20 day moving averages). The VIX close occurred on major chart support as well. Weak VIX closes are very common at OpEx and I expect to see a bounce back up next week as it gets recalibrated for February options.
The recent rally, and subsequent plummeting of the VIX, is lulling many into a false sense of comfort. The market has come too far too fast (4-7% gain across the indexes in the last 3 weeks) and needs to consolidate, digest, and back and fill to sustain a continued rally. The further we rally from here, with no meaningful pullback, the shorter I will get.
For the record, I am not a bear. I actually expect S&P 1340-1350 during the first half of the year. But, this rally has been too fierce and quick to sustain and it needs to pullback to test the levels from which it broke out. This would signal a move to approximately S&P 1280.
In the meantime, I will continue to sell into this rally via Bear Call Spreads and In The Money (ITM) Bear Put Spreads. I will leave myself room to be wrong in the event the rally continues but will not be getting short puts anytime soon. I am cautions about short puts because when we get a break downward, to is likely to be swift. Being short puts at this juncture is a recipe for disaster. Instead, use conservative strategies above the market to insulate yourself from a rapid decline as it will happen.....at some point.
Navigate wisely and stay profitable, my friends. Happy trading!
BOOKINGALPHA UPDATE:
Monthly Trading Service Commentary:
It was a busy week in the Monthly Trading Service with roll adjustments to 2 Bear Call Spreads on QQQ & SPX, execution of a new Bear Put Spread on SPY, and the successful expiration of a Bear Call Spread on RUT for +12.36% in 10 days.
The 2 roll adjustment trades were executed to reposition the QQQ & SPX Bear Call Spreads as required due to the massive rally for the last 3 weeks in the markets. Both roll adjustments repositioned the risk profiles of each spread to a more comfortable setting while receiving additional credits for doing so. This is the best of both worlds in options trading.
The new SPY Bear Put Spread was deployed to take advantage of an overdue pullback or at least a slowing of the current rally. The spread is nicely Out of The Money (OTM) and will profit quickly on any pullback. A stalling of the rally will also generate profits for the position as well as premium value will decay of the short strike sold.
Lastly, the existing RUT spread expired for full profits with January options expiration on Friday.
With the expiration of the RUT spread and the new SPY position, the Monthly Portfolio is 60% invested with the remaining 40% in cash.
The Monthly Advisory continues to outperform and deliver consistent drama-free Alpha:
+2.10% YTD BookingAlpha Monthly Advisory
vs.
+4.48% YTD S&P 500
See Trading Record
Weekly Trading Service Commentary:
There was no trade for this week's Weekly Options Expiration due to a lack of prudent opportunities. However, a new trade was opened on Friday using Feb Monthly options. The trade is a Bear Put Spread on IWM to position for a pullback, or at least a slower rally than experienced lately.
IWM is the most overbought of the indexes advancing >5.5% in the past 3 weeks alone. This is an unsustainable pace that cannot continue. Keeping in mind that markets can stay irrational longer than any one trader can stay solvent, I executed a deep in the money Bear Put Spread.
The IWM position provides a nice buffer in the event the rally continues short term. I used Feb options to provide extra time for the position to work out if the rally does indeed continue short term. However, any further rally will be short lived due to the extreme overbought circumstances of the market.
The Weekly Advisory continues to outperform and deliver Alpha:
+5.30% YTD BookingAlpha Weekly Advisory
vs.
+4.48% YTD S&P 500
See Trading Record
What are your thoughts on the market? Place your comments below!
If you like what I'm doing please review BookingAlpha on Investimonials and Stock Gumshoe. I do no advertising, spam mailing, or anything else like that. My sole source of marketing is subscriber referrals, opinions, reviews, and feedback. Thanks in advance!
TradeMonster-Get $50.00 FREE for opening a new account. Enter promo code: BookingAlpha during account opening process for your FREE $50 bucks!
Check out my latest interviews at TraderInterviews.com & Benzinga:
Subscribe today and don't miss out on your next profit opportunity!
Enter promo code: BookingAlpha during account opening process for your FREE $50 bucks!
It's a great time to be a credit spread seller with this volatile environment. But, be mindful of the recent gains and don't chase or get too aggressive! Both BookingAlpha Trading Advisory Services have been reaping nice rewards from this volatility the past few months. September and October were very profitable and November positions are already being deployed to reap gains from current volatility. Stay tuned and we'll see!
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Tuesday, 17 January 2012 09:12 |
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Here is your weekly trading calendar of scheduled economic data releases and other potential market moving events for the trading week of January 16 - 20, 2012.
Visit BookingAlpha for details on how to leverage this information into actionable trades.
Navigate wisely and stay profitable, my friends.
MONDAY:
Closed
TUESDAY:
8:30 New York Empire Manufacturing, January: 10.0 expected, 9.5 prior
WEDNESDAY:
7:00 MBA Mortgage Index, 01/14: +4.5% prior
7:00 MBA Mortgage Purchase Index, 01/14: +4.5% prior
8:30 PPI, December: 0.1% expected, 0.3% prior
8:30 Core PPI, December: 0.1% expected, 0.1% prior
9:00 Net Long-Term TIC Fl, November: $4.8B prior
9:15 Industrial Production, December: 0.5% expected, -0.2% prior
9:15 Capacity Utilization, December: 78.1% expected, 77.8% prior
10:00 NAHB Housing Market , January: 21 expected, 21 prior
THURSDAY:
8:30 Initial Claims, 01/14: 387K expected, 399K prior
8:30 Continuing Claims, 01/07: 3613K expected, 3628K prior
8:30 Core CPI, December: 0.0% prior
8:30 CPI, December: 0.1% expected, 0.0% prior
8:30 Core CPI, December: 0.1% expected, 0.2% prior
8:30 CPI, December: 0.2% prior
8:30 Housing Starts, December: 670K expected, 685K prior
8:30 Building Permits, December: 680K expected, 681K prior
10:00 Philadelphia Fed, January: 10.0 expected, 10.3 prior
11:00 Crude Inventories, 01/14: 4.958M prior
FRIDAY:
10:00 Existing Home Sales, December: 4.57M expected, 4.42M prior
If you like what I'm doing please post it out there on Investimonials and Stock Gumshoe. I do no advertising, spam mailing, or anything else like that. My sole source of marketing is subscriber referrals, opinions, reviews, and feedback. Thanks in advance!
Check out my latest interviews at TraderInterviews.com & Benzinga:
Subscribe today and don't miss out on your next profit opportunity!
Enter promo code: BookingAlpha during account opening process for your FREE $50 bucks!
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Sunday, 15 January 2012 09:09 |
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Broader Market Weekly Performance:
Dow +0.51%
S&P +0.88%
Nasdaq +1.03%
Russell +1.80%
MARKET UPDATE:
Two weeks in the books for 2012 and two weeks of solid gains for the markets. While there hasn't really been a "good reason" to rally, markets have continued chugging higher.
Domestic and foreign economic data has been printing between "okay" and "not that great". This so-so econ data was followed up Friday with rumors, and then confirmation after the close, of credit downgrades across Euro-land. Rumors were flying during Friday's trading about France being downgraded and after the bell, S&P released additional downgrades across the Euro nations beyond just France.
Markets have continued to grind higher since opening 2012 but appear to be losing steam and rolling over. Daily trading ranges have fallen sharply (less volatility) and the VIX has a 20 handle. Volume has been extremely thin as well. The S&P is forming a double top under 1300.
The market is [still] reflecting overbought and MLK week / Jan options expiration week are statistically negative for the markets. I feel like the upside is limited here but that doesn't mean there couldn't be one last small push. My analysis reflects the upside is limited for the S&P to between 1300-1310 (+10 points, or +0.8%, from Friday's close).
The healthiest thing for the market would be to consolidate and pullback to test previous resistance turned support. For the S&P this would be the 1260-1265 area; the location of the 200 and 20 DMA's and solid chart support. A pullback to that level would set the market up for a nice bounce back up to the 1300-1310 level and give it the foundation it needs for a rally through the end of the month/quarter.
Earnings will continue this week and will tech and financials will be center-stage. JP Morgan (JPM) gave us a preview Friday with okay earnings but a dismal outlook. JPM is the best financial out there and if they aren't hitting on all 8 cylinders then the rest are barely idling. Tech could potentially be hindered by supply issues out of Japan as a result of the tsunami and lower than expected holiday sales.
Navigate wisely and stay profitable, my friends. Happy trading!
BOOKINGALPHA UPDATE:
Monthly Trading Service Commentary:
I took advantage of the continued grind higher by markets this week to open 2 new positions: Bear Call Spreads on QQQ and RUT.
Both positions, as well as the existing SPX Bear Call Spread deployed the previous week, remain comfortably OTM (Out of The Money). Confidence is high for these spreads for a successful and profitable expiration for the upcoming OpEx week. No more Jan expiration trades will be issued as I will be moving on to Feb trades now.
The Monthly Trading portfolio is currently 60% invested. The remaining 40% of the portfolio remains in cash.
The Monthly Advisory continues to outperform and deliver consistent drama-free Alpha:
+72.33% 2011 BookingAlpha Monthly Advisory
vs.
-0.01% 2011 S&P 500
No 2012 trades closed yet
See Trading Record
Weekly Trading Service Commentary:
I took advantage of Tuesday's rally to execute a RUT Bear Call Spread comfortably above the market. While the market cointinued to grind higher as the week progressed, the RUT never threatened the Bear Call Spread which ultimately expired worhtless for maximum profit of +7.43% in 4 days.
The expiration of the RUT position brings the Weekly Trading portfolio back to 100% cash.
The Weekly Advisory continues to outperform and deliver Alpha:
+5.30% YTD BookingAlpha Weekly Advisory
vs.
+2.48% YTD S&P 500
See Trading Record
What are your thoughts on the market? Place your comments below!
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It's a great time to be a credit spread seller with this volatile environment. But, be mindful of the recent gains and don't chase or get too aggressive! Both BookingAlpha Trading Advisory Services have been reaping nice rewards from this volatility the past few months. September and October were very profitable and November positions are already being deployed to reap gains from current volatility. Stay tuned and we'll see!
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